If you followed the WTA Tour to a reasonable degree in 2018, you know that the tour is deep, balanced, unpredictable, and filled with players who have been brilliant in short bursts but haven’t dominated the tour for three- or four-month segments, let alone the whole year. The most consistent WTA player of 2018 is a player who won’t compete in the upcoming WTA Finals: Simona Halep. The only player who stands particularly close to Halep in terms of consistency is Angelique Kerber, who joined Halep in the Australian Open semifinals and made a number of quarterfinals at important tournaments in the first half of 2018 before winning Wimbledon in July.
Kerber knows as well as everyone else in Singapore that when these WTA Finals begin, seeds mean nothing except for the fact that they separate the halves of the draw (1 and 2, 3 and 4, 5 and 6, 7 and 8 being split into separate halves). Carry that point of awareness into this tournament… and remember that recent WTA Finals have also served as a warning to anyone who feels secure in predicting this event in Asia.
The last WTA Finals with a “normal” championship match was 2014. Serena Williams entered as the top seed and favorite. She left as the champion after defeating Halep in the final. Yet, even in that year, the No. 8 seed — the player who participated in the tournament as the eighth-place finisher in the WTA Race To Singapore and was not injured or otherwise displaced by the first alternate — made the semifinals. That was Caroline Wozniacki back then.
In two of the next three years since that 2014 year-end championship for the WTA, No. 8 seeds have returned to the semifinals: Svetlana Kuznetsova in 2016 and Caroline Garcia last year. Being the eighth member of the field in Singapore has hardly meant an early dismissal in the round-robin stages.
Try this fact on for size as well: In each of the last three WTA Finals (following Serena’s triumph in 2014), the winner has come from the bottom four seeds: Agnieszka Radwanska in 2015 (No. 5), Dominika Cibulkova in 2016 (No. 7), and Wozniacki last year (No. 6). Last year, none of the top four seeds even made the final. Only one — Karolina Pliskova, who is back in this year’s edition — managed to get as far as the semifinals, and most observers probably felt that Pliskova was herself a surprise semifinalist despite a No. 3 seeding.
I would be willing to guess that if I asked a bunch of tennis pundits whether Pliskova or Garbine Muguruza would make the semis last year in Singapore (once the WTA Finals groups were announced), most would have predicted Muguruza. Remember, Garbine had won Cincinnati and lost at the U.S. Open only because Petra Kvitova (who is a 2018 WTA Finals participant) played a spectacular match to beat her in the fourth round. Pliskova was convincingly beaten by CoCo Vandeweghe in the U.S. Open quarterfinals.
I won’t say “no one saw it coming,” but few people expected Pliskova to dismantle Muguruza by a 6-2, 6-2 scoreline to start round-robin play in 2017. That result sent the Spaniard on a downward course, ultimately out of Singapore before the semis arrived.
The WTA Finals — over the past three iterations — achieved what the 2018 WTA season has similarly done: Both this tournament and the 2018 WTA Tour have wiped out the significance of high seeds.
Kerber won Wimbledon as a No. 11 seed. Naomi Osaka won the U.S. Open as a No. 20 seed. Sloane Stephens reached the Roland Garros final as a No. 10 seed. Only the Australian Open — with No. 1 Halep against No. 2 Wozniacki — went according to form, and both players had to save multiple match points to get to the final. Wozniacki could have been out in round two, Halep out in round three, but they survived and changed their stories in 2018 with remarkable fightback efforts.
This is all prelude to the revelation of the two groups for the 2018 WTA Finals.
One group — the Red Group — will have Kerber, Osaka, Stephens, and Kiki Bertens, the beneficiary of Halep’s pullout this past week due to her injury.
The other group — the White Group — will have Wozniacki, Kvitova, Elina Svitolina, and Pliskova.
On paper, one would think that the White Group will elevate Wozniacki and Kvitova (the higher two seeds in that foursome) to the semifinals. Svitolina has noticeably struggled this season and either lacks a solid plan or needs time (in the coming offseason) to implement it. Pliskova is a solid quarterfinal-level tour player, exactly what a player who finishes just inside the top 8 figures to achieve, but she has not improved her game in 2018. Kvitova, playing indoors where she is comfortable, figures to Czech-mate her countrywoman when they play.
That is on paper, however. WTA Finals tournaments have shredded a lot of paper in recent years.
The Red Group isn’t predictable on paper, so there is no need to overturn any conventional wisdom… because there IS no conventional wisdom to start with.
Kerber could be refreshed by a not-too-taxing autumn swing. She has not overloaded herself with matches, unlike Osaka, who has shown good form but carried a lot more on her plate in recent months. Stephens — as usual — did not do well in the tournaments following the U.S. Open, but she is well-known as a player who plays poorly at a few events and then soars at the next. If she does well in Singapore, no one should be surprised. Finally, Bertens might be the No. 8 player in the field relative to the 2018 WTA Race to Singapore, but the second half of the season has been filled with victories and career breakthroughs. She is a dangerous player, akin to Garcia as the No. 8 seed last year.
The WTA Finals are about to begin. Seeds offer no real indication of where the road leads at the year-end championship of women’s tennis.