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Roundtable – WTA Major Showdowns in 2019

Tennis Accent Staff

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Robert Deutsch - USA TODAY Sports

What is the one WTA matchup you really want to see at the major tournaments in 2019?

JANE VOIGT — @downthetee

The unrivaled match of the U.S. Open was a fourth-round encounter between Naomi Osaka and Aryana Sabalenka. It was the only match of Osaka’s tour de force in New York that went three sets. Osaka, up against what could be described as a mirror image of herself in Sabalenka, broke through a wall of competition that day she hadn’t been asked to do in three prior rounds and, perhaps, her career. This was a match that could have defined Osaka in unflattering terms, so the burden of victory lay at her feet.

Sabalenka, also 20, is, like Osaka, a woman at the threshold of a promising career. She arrived at the Open having won her first title at the Connecticut Open. Her powerful groundstrokes compared equally to those of Osaka. Their serves were weapons. Their on-court intuition was honed. Thinking back to that Labor Day encounter, the meeting feels like a sign of things to come. Another matchup between them, this time at the Australian Open, could confirm a budding rivalry that is much needed on the WTA Tour. It would be an ideal start to the 2019 Grand Slam season.

ANDREW BURTON — @burtonad

There have been two constant features in the WTA since 2008: Serena Williams, if fit, is an excellent bet to go deep in a big tournament; hardly anybody else is.

There was a period between 2011 and 2013 when Viktoria Azarenka looked like she might establish herself as the next bankable player, when she competed in 7 semifinals out of a possible 10 major tournaments. But the 2013 U.S. Open marked the last time Azarenka went deep in a major.

To my mind, this has deprived the WTA of part of the lifeblood of the sport: compelling new rivalries. To take one example, Caroline Wozniacki and Simona Halep, then 27 and 26 respectively, met in the 2018 Australian Open final as the No. 2 and No. 1 seed respectively, but were playing each other for only the seventh time. (The woeful WTA site lists a 0-0 head-to-head record. Can’t they afford decent programmers?)

Sloane Stephens, last year’s U.S. Open winner, and Naomi Osaka, the 2018 champion, have met only once to date – in Acapulco in 2016. Stephens came out on top then, 6-3, 7-5. I’d like to see Osaka’s confident shotmaking against Stephens’ superb measured defense and length of shot in 2019 – and have that be one of a suite of excellent new rivalries in the women’s game.

MERT ERTUNGA — @MertovsTDesk 

When answering this question, I am assuming that both players are in-form, because I am interested in the challenges the particular matchup brings to the table. With that in mind, the one matchup I would like to see is Madison Keys versus Simona Halep at the U.S. Open.

These two players have not faced each other since 2016 and never on U.S. soil. Thus, Halep’s 5-1 lead (including the walkover in Rome this year) does not mean much, considering that Keys has improved by leaps and bounds over the last two years. Let’s also keep in mind that Keys has shown great form at the U.S. Open, reaching the final in 2017 and semifinals in 2018, losing each time to the eventual winner. It is her favorite major of the year, probably the one where she dreams of making her big splash.

With Simona’s wonderful footwork and Madison’s high-octane striking, played possibly on what could be called “Madison’s turf,” this matchup promises high-quality tennis. Naturally, the speed of the surface will matter. If the snail-pace surface of this year still lingers in 2019 (I hope not), we could have long rallies in which Keys would need to take bigger cuts at balls to put the ball past one of the best movers in women’s tennis in the Open Era (Arantxa, I have not forgotten you).

This is also a baseline challenge for Simona, who would need to rely on what I believe to be her biggest source of improvement from the baseline, which is the ability to change the direction of the ball as well as accelerate. In the past, her backhand down the line was a step ahead of the other patterns in terms of changing direction and accelerating, but the current version of Halep is able to do that from anywhere on the court.

This matchup would push each player to dig deeper in their manuals of problem-solving. Two examples: Keys would need to put her drop shots to use in order not to let Halep get too comfortable at the baseline. Simona would need to pay special attention to her first-serve placement in order not to let Madison unleash from the first ball of the rally on her serves.

Hopefully, each will get to the end of August without having suffered any serious injury, ready to launch a title run in New York.

BRIANA FOUST — @4TheTennis

Since Serena won her 23rd major, the slams have been a free-for-all on the women’s side, but the WTA has still not produced a consistent rivalry during that time frame. There has not been a case of two women pushing each other at majors since Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka during 2012 and 2013. One matchup I want to see more of from the WTA at major tournaments in 2019 is Simona Halep versus Sloane Stephens.

These two have the perfect ingredients for a compelling rivalry: close in age, popular major champions, still improving their styles of tennis, and they are both competitive on all surfaces. Their final in Montreal this year was inspiring to watch as a tennis fan. Halep and Stephens used every shot in the book and every inch of the court in trying to outmaneuver the other.

That match reminded me a lot of Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic during the 2010-2012 period. To me that was the zenith of their rivalry, which culminated in the six-hour 2012 Australian Open final, but during those years we saw those guys push each other to their absolute limits while reimagining what could be possible on a tennis court. I think Halep and Stephens have the potential to do the same.

MATT ZEMEK — @mzemek

Venus Williams-Garbine Muguruza at Wimbledon in 2017 gave us a very compelling first set before Muguruza ran away with the second. Serena Williams-Naomi Osaka at the 2018 U.S. Open was a fascinating match until YOU KNOW WHAT happened.

In 2019, I would love to see another major-tournament matchup, ideally a semifinal or final, between two players with at least a 10-year age gap between them.

In 2018, one week before winning her first Wimbledon and her third major, Angelique Kerber calmly dissected Naomi Osaka in the third round on Centre Court. Osaka was recovering from an abdominal injury she suffered in the grass warm-up season, so she was not in prime position to mount a challenge to Kerber. Maybe the next time, that matchup could sparkle on grass, but an element of mystery has been removed from it.

Let’s try the other 20-year-old on the WTA Tour who made a splash this past summer: Aryna Sabalenka. Let’s see her face Kerber on Wimbledon laws next year.

I don’t like to predict big riches and successes for very young players until I see “the moment,” the loud and thunderous statement which makes greatness too overwhelming to ignore. Sabalenka certainly impressed in Cincinnati, New Haven and New York, but Osaka captured “the moment.” I would love to see Sabalenka – tested by the WTA Tour in the first half of 2019 – make her way to the All-England Club as a target, which did not apply to her 2018 visit. That trip to SW19 was cut short in round one by Mihaela Buzarnescu.

If Sabalenka makes a deep run at Wimbledon in 2019, she could take the place of Jelena Ostapenko in 2018. Ostapenko met Kerber in a young-versus-old semifinal, and Kerber found the consistency needed to short-circuit the always-aggressive Latvian. Sabalenka hits big, but she shows signs of being able to play with more margin than Ostapenko does.

Imagine three sets of Sabalenka slugging versus Kerber court coverage. Oh, yeah.

You know you want it.

The Tennis With An Accent staff produces roundtable articles and other articles with group input during the tennis season. Staff articles belong to the TWAA family of writers and contributors, as opposed to any individual commentator. Our staff produces roundtables every week of the tennis season, so that you will always know what the TWAA staff thinks about the important tennis topics of the times.

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Stephens and Bertens Have Reason To Smile At The WTA Finals

Matt Zemek

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Susan Mullane - USA TODAY Sports

Whereas the WTA Finals White Group offered a clear favorite — Caroline Wozniacki — and a likely second choice, Petra Kvitova, the Red Group was more complicated.

This half of the WTA’s year-end championship tournament in Singapore placed four players on relatively equal — and uncertain — footing.

There was a strong case to make FOR and AGAINST each player advancing to the semifinals and enjoying a productive week in Singapore.

Angelique Kerber, with her defensive skills and a past appearance in the championship match of the WTA Finals (two years ago against Dominika Cibulkova), was a natural fit for the slower playing surface in Singapore. On the other hand, her coaching situation is now uncertain after the split with Wim Fissette, documented here at Tennis With An Accent. She had also not done much since her Wimbledon title.

Kiki Bertens has been playing high-quality tennis for most of the past few months. On the other hand, she was new to this event and wasn’t sure until late last week — when Simona Halep pulled out — that she would qualify for the final eight. She would have been the first alternate had Halep played in Singapore. That is not an easy position for any athlete — these professionals crave certainty and the ability to plan ahead.

Naomi Osaka has been — alongside Aryna Sabalenka — one of the two best players on the WTA Tour since late August. On the other hand, she was also new to the WTA Finals and did not feel 100-percent healthy late in Beijing, where physical discomfort seemed to affect her in a loss to Anastasija Sevastova.

Sloane Stephens — like Kerber — plays great defense and therefore figured to enjoy the slower courts in Singapore. She, like Kerber, had also not overplayed in September, leaving her fresh for this tournament, whereas Bertens and Osaka had played a lot more tennis over the past two months. On the other hand, Stephens rarely plays well in Asia and had been coming off another typically mediocre Asian swing. This was also her first WTA Finals appearance as a top-eight qualifier. She was second alternate in 2013.

Bottom line: You could look at this group and all four players and easily see any of them winning, or any of them losing. Bertens and Osaka were the in-form players, but they were newcomers to this event. Kerber and Stephens had the playing styles to match the slower court speed, but were not in top form.

Bertens and Osaka had logged a lot of miles in recent weeks, while Kerber and Stephens were looking for a spark. Kerber carried the extra baggage of her coaching situation… but Elina Svitolina is also in an in-between place relative to her coaching arrangement, and that didn’t seem to bother her in a convincing win over Petra Kvitova a day earlier in Singapore.

So, who had a clue how the Red Group would unfold?

The first day of Red Group play in Singapore — Day 2 of the WTA Finals — was a natural extension and product of the uncertainties this group brought to the court.

In both matches on Monday, the outcome was totally up for grabs early in the third set, with no clear linear flow of play. In both matches — much like Day 1 in the White Group — the Red Group’s foursome immersed itself in complicated service games, veering between sublime and mediocre play. These matches weren’t classics, but neither were they ugly slogs. They defied easy analysis. They involved late-set plot twists (more than the White Group openers) and a lot fewer consolidated service breaks. What was gained in one moment was lost minutes later.

Through all the chaos and the variations in quality, two entertaining and well-fought matches naturally split the difference between the in-form players and the struggling players.

In the first Red Group match on Monday night, Stephens halted Osaka in three sets. In the second match, Bertens’ terrific second-half surge in 2018 continued with a comeback win over the still-sluggish Kerber.

These matches felt like 50-50 prospects coming in, which is why Monday’s wins have to be especially satisfying for the winners, both newcomers to the WTA Finals.

Whereas Stephens generally expects to play well at the U.S. Open and Kerber has her happy place at Wimbledon, this environment doesn’t hold the same weight of expectation. Bertens and Osaka — both riding the wave at the high points of their respective careers — could not say, entering Singapore, that they knew what to expect. They didn’t.

No one did.

Monday’s matches reflected as much, with Osaka getting broken three times by Stephens in the first set, then finding her backhand in the second set — especially to the deuce corner — only to then lose the plot in the third in the face of Stephens’ renewed consistency and impeccably good defense.

The nightcap was even wilder, with Kerber storming through the first set, only to lose focus at key points late in the second. The third set was one of the most unusual sets of tennis played anywhere in 2018, with seven straight breaks of serve to start the set, followed by a hold for Bertens in Game 8 from love-40 down.

Bertens served out the match moments later to create a drama similar to the one in the White Group: The two major champions of 2018 which are located in the Red Group, Osaka and Kerber, will play in Match 2 for WTA Finals survival. This is akin to the White Group second match between Wozniacki (another 2018 major champion) and Kvitova, a five-time tour winner this year who figured to play Wozniacki in the winner’s match, not the loser’s match, on Tuesday.

The results of the first two days remain entirely fitting for the WTA Finals, an event drenched in unpredictability over the past several years: As soon as Simona Halep — the most consistent player on tour this year — pulled out, these Finals were left with a lot of inconsistent players, Kerber being the least inconsistent of the larger bunch but still carrying questions to Singapore.

Two days, four matches, four results — they have all underscored the reality of WTA inconsistency. They have produced interesting, layered tennis, but consistency is the last word one would apply to the theater of competition thus far. The three 2018 major champions in this field of eight will all play for survival, not to clinch a semifinal spot, in their second matches over the next 48 hours.

Everything feels uncertain this week in Singapore, which is exactly why these first-match wins for Stephens and Bertens should offer both players considerable cause for elation.

Sloane and Kiki know, however, that as their matches showed on Monday, nothing at the WTA Finals remains in place very long.

Let’s see what the second matches do — in both groups — to shake up this tournament even more.

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WTA Finals — Things Are Looking Up For Svitolina and Pliskova On Day 1

Matt Zemek

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Geoff Burke -- USA TODAY Sports

Petra Kvitova won five titles in 2018 and generally feels very comfortable indoors, where her clean ballstriking isn’t subjected to wind and her body isn’t subjected to the extreme summer heat which has often gotten in her way in the past.

Caroline Wozniacki had just won the Beijing Premier Mandatory championship and had all the momentum she could have wanted entering Singapore.

If you polled any 10 tennis fans or commentators about the White Group at the WTA Finals, it is hard to imagine anyone not picking Wozniacki to advance from the round-robin stages into the semifinals. You might have received some split verdicts on Kvitova, with Karolina Pliskova possibly receiving some votes as a semifinal participant.

The one player who didn’t figure to rise at this tournament from the White Group? Elina Svitolina.

You know, the player who just ditched her coaching team.

The player whose body has gone through a lot of changes this year.

The player who still put together solid results this season — obviously enough to make the WTA Finals again — but never looked like a championship contender since Roland Garros.

Yeah, THAT player.

Year-end championship tournaments — for both the WTA and the ATP — generally involve at least one player who enters the event ready for the season to be over. This is not a negative commentary on the athlete as a competitor; it is merely a reflection of the complicated and often overwhelming circumstances which surround competition. At least one athlete is either going through too much upheaval, or has played too much tennis, or has struggled to find the sweet spot in terms of rhythm or tactics or poise, or all of the above.

If you were to ask anyone who has followed the WTA in 2018 about the White Group player most likely to be eliminated in the round-robin segment of the WTA Finals, only one choice made the most sense: Svitolina.

Guess what? She cleanly defeated Petra Kvitova to kick off the festivities in Asia.

On a first day of the WTA Finals in which both matches took on similar dimensions, Svitolina and Karolina Pliskova both scored what would generally be viewed as upsets. They stopped Kvitova and Wozniacki to immediately upend the White Group balance of power. They didn’t even need three sets to do so — both won in straights, and both by a margin of 12 games to 6. Svitolina won 3 and 3, while Pliskova won 2 and 4.

When one remembers that sets won and lost, plus games won and lost, decide tiebreakers if the round-robin standings become messy, the decisive nature of Svitolina’s and Pliskova’s victories give them added leverage heading into their second matches.

The flip side of that reality: Wozniacki and Kvitova — the two favorites to advance to the semis in most eyes once the two groups were revealed in Singapore — won’t meet to decide the group champion. They will instead meet for survival. The loser will not be able to do any better than 1-2 in the three-match round-robin portion of the tournament. That might be enough to advance, but with the bad math created by Day 1’s results, that is not something to count on.

The common thread uniting these two matches — other than their identity as upsets — is that in both cases, one player won a majority of crunch-time points.

Consider this from Svitolina’s victory, adding that deuce points weren’t counted as part of this tweet:

Then turn to the nightcap on Sunday in Singapore and note that Wozniacki went 0 for 10 in break-point chances against Pliskova, including two not converted when Pliskova was serving for the match at 5-4 in the second set.

Especially in the case of Wozniacki against Pliskova, you are not going to see too many matches in which a returner of Woz’s caliber is denied that many times on break points without a single conversion. “One of those days” and “small sample size” do apply. There is no need to fight the notion that these results had a degree of randomness to them.

Nevertheless, it remains that at the WTA Finals, Day 1 in 2018 continued the theme discussed here in our Tennis With An Accent scene-setter for the tournament.

The 2017 tournament provided a 2-and-2 win for Pliskova in her first match of the week in Singapore. That win came against Garbine Muguruza. That was as unexpected as this win was against Wozniacki. Svitolina over Kvitova isn’t as surprising if only because Kvitova hasn’t done as much on tour compared to Wozniacki in recent months. Nevertheless, Svitolina’s diminished game and uncertain coaching situation hardly supported the idea that she was ready for a breakthrough in Singapore.

The WTA Finals remain unpredictable. Day 1 set a tone in the White Group. We will soon see if the Red Group cuts in a similar direction.

One person’s advice: Don’t think for a second you know which way this event is going to go. The player most people expected to thrive at this tournament, Wozniacki, will play Kvitova on Tuesday not to ascend to the top of the group, but to merely stay in contention for the semifinals.

Yup — that sounds about right, given how the WTA Finals have unfolded in recent years.

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2018 WTA Finals Reminder — Seeds Don’t Show Where The Road Leads

Matt Zemek

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Susan Mullane - USA TODAY Sports

If you followed the WTA Tour to a reasonable degree in 2018, you know that the tour is deep, balanced, unpredictable, and filled with players who have been brilliant in short bursts but haven’t dominated the tour for three- or four-month segments, let alone the whole year. The most consistent WTA player of 2018 is a player who won’t compete in the upcoming WTA Finals: Simona Halep. The only player who stands particularly close to Halep in terms of consistency is Angelique Kerber, who joined Halep in the Australian Open semifinals and made a number of quarterfinals at important tournaments in the first half of 2018 before winning Wimbledon in July.

Kerber knows as well as everyone else in Singapore that when these WTA Finals begin, seeds mean nothing except for the fact that they separate the halves of the draw (1 and 2, 3 and 4, 5 and 6, 7 and 8 being split into separate halves). Carry that point of awareness into this tournament… and remember that recent WTA Finals have also served as a warning to anyone who feels secure in predicting this event in Asia.

The last WTA Finals with a “normal” championship match was 2014. Serena Williams entered as the top seed and favorite. She left as the champion after defeating Halep in the final. Yet, even in that year, the No. 8 seed — the player who participated in the tournament as the eighth-place finisher in the WTA Race To Singapore and was not injured or otherwise displaced by the first alternate — made the semifinals. That was Caroline Wozniacki back then.

In two of the next three years since that 2014 year-end championship for the WTA, No. 8 seeds have returned to the semifinals: Svetlana Kuznetsova in 2016 and Caroline Garcia last year. Being the eighth member of the field in Singapore has hardly meant an early dismissal in the round-robin stages.

Try this fact on for size as well: In each of the last three WTA Finals (following Serena’s triumph in 2014), the winner has come from the bottom four seeds: Agnieszka Radwanska in 2015 (No. 5), Dominika Cibulkova in 2016 (No. 7), and Wozniacki last year (No. 6). Last year, none of the top four seeds even made the final. Only one — Karolina Pliskova, who is back in this year’s edition — managed to get as far as the semifinals, and most observers probably felt that Pliskova was herself a surprise semifinalist despite a No. 3 seeding.

I would be willing to guess that if I asked a bunch of tennis pundits whether Pliskova or Garbine Muguruza would make the semis last year in Singapore (once the WTA Finals groups were announced), most would have predicted Muguruza. Remember, Garbine had won Cincinnati and lost at the U.S. Open only because Petra Kvitova (who is a 2018 WTA Finals participant) played a spectacular match to beat her in the fourth round. Pliskova was convincingly beaten by CoCo Vandeweghe in the U.S. Open quarterfinals.

I won’t say “no one saw it coming,” but few people expected Pliskova to dismantle Muguruza by a 6-2, 6-2 scoreline to start round-robin play in 2017. That result sent the Spaniard on a downward course, ultimately out of Singapore before the semis arrived.

The WTA Finals — over the past three iterations — achieved what the 2018 WTA season has similarly done: Both this tournament and the 2018 WTA Tour have wiped out the significance of high seeds.

Kerber won Wimbledon as a No. 11 seed. Naomi Osaka won the U.S. Open as a No. 20 seed. Sloane Stephens reached the Roland Garros final as a No. 10 seed. Only the Australian Open — with No. 1 Halep against No. 2 Wozniacki — went according to form, and both players had to save multiple match points to get to the final. Wozniacki could have been out in round two, Halep out in round three, but they survived and changed their stories in 2018 with remarkable fightback efforts.

This is all prelude to the revelation of the two groups for the 2018 WTA Finals.

One group — the Red Group — will have Kerber, Osaka, Stephens, and Kiki Bertens, the beneficiary of Halep’s pullout this past week due to her injury.

The other group — the White Group — will have Wozniacki, Kvitova, Elina Svitolina, and Pliskova.

On paper, one would think that the White Group will elevate Wozniacki and Kvitova (the higher two seeds in that foursome) to the semifinals. Svitolina has noticeably struggled this season and either lacks a solid plan or needs time (in the coming offseason) to implement it. Pliskova is a solid quarterfinal-level tour player, exactly what a player who finishes just inside the top 8 figures to achieve, but she has not improved her game in 2018. Kvitova, playing indoors where she is comfortable, figures to Czech-mate her countrywoman when they play.

That is on paper, however. WTA Finals tournaments have shredded a lot of paper in recent years.

The Red Group isn’t predictable on paper, so there is no need to overturn any conventional wisdom… because there IS no conventional wisdom to start with.

Kerber could be refreshed by a not-too-taxing autumn swing. She has not overloaded herself with matches, unlike Osaka, who has shown good form but carried a lot more on her plate in recent months. Stephens — as usual — did not do well in the tournaments following the U.S. Open, but she is well-known as a player who plays poorly at a few events and then soars at the next. If she does well in Singapore, no one should be surprised. Finally, Bertens might be the No. 8 player in the field relative to the 2018 WTA Race to Singapore, but the second half of the season has been filled with victories and career breakthroughs. She is a dangerous player, akin to Garcia as the No. 8 seed last year.

The WTA Finals are about to begin. Seeds offer no real indication of where the road leads at the year-end championship of women’s tennis.

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