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WTA INTERSECTIONS IN ENGLAND

Saqib Ali

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Matt Zemek

Elina Svitolina ran into the wrong opponent… again.

Mihaela Buzarnescu is one of four semifinalists at the Birmingham Classic. This comes on the heels of a quarterfinal run in Nottingham, a fourth-round showing at the French Open, and a semifinal result at Strasbourg. Simona Halep won Roland Garros and other players won those various tournaments, but in terms of players who have played each of those events (it isn’t a long list), Buzarnescu has been the most consistent. Given that three of those weeks were on clay and two were on grass, Buzarnescu’s feats are magnified — not necessarily because she is getting work done on two surfaces, but because she didn’t take any meaningful time off. She has promptly gone from one tournament to another over a five-week span and continued to play well.

One detail which is impossible to ignore in the midst of this five-week run: Buzarnescu has now defeated Elina Svitolina twice, once on each surface. That’s what the Romanian achieved when dismissing her highly-ranked Ukrainian opponent once again, this time on lawn.

Will she be able to keep this up at Wimbledon? That’s a reasonable question to ask. Yet, as the Birmingham quarterfinals flow into Saturday’s semifinals, a bigger question is posed to the WTA Tour: Is there any template which definitively marks a player as ready — or unready — for Wimbledon?

It already seems fairly clear that using the grass warm-up season to determine levels of preparedness for The Championships is a risky exercise… and more than that, unwise.

Had Svitolina beaten Buzarnescu in Friday’s Birmingham quarters, would anyone in the larger community of global tennis felt that Svitolina was ready to win Wimbledon? I doubt it. It is true that being able to avenge a loss against an opponent who caused trouble a few weeks ago in Paris would have carried value for Svitolina, but Buzarnescu is not the standard by which Svitolina is being judged… nor should she be. Svitolina has very little to prove in any lead-up event preceding a major. To put a finer point on this topic, she defended her Rome title this year, reaffirming the notion that she was a player to be taken seriously at Roland Garros… where she never played well.

2018 Nature Valley Classic - 22 Jun

Image source – Jimmie 48

Svitolina entered Roland Garros as an in-form player, and it didn’t work out. She enters Wimbledon as an out-of-form player who suffered a blister on her hand in Birmingham. She might predictably fail to do well at Wimbledon, but even if she does play well, it’s not as though the grass warm-up season could possibly be cited as proof that she was ready to make a run. Svitolina exists in a space where performance at lead-up events before majors doesn’t offer any indication into how she will compete at the four biggest tournaments of the year.

Svitolina is struggling. Buzarnescu is rolling. Do these stories matter in reference to expected performance at Wimbledon? Certainly not for Svitolina, quite possibly not for Buzarnescu.

It is little different for another one of the four semifinalists in Birmingham on Saturday, Petra Kvitova.

2018 Nature Valley Classic - 22 Jun

Image source – Jimmie 48

The Czech’s last major title (also her last Wimbledon title, since she hasn’t won any other major tournament) came in 2014. Kvitova won a grass lead-up event last year in Birmingham but could not get out of the first week of Wimbledon. She made the Eastbourne grass final in 2011 and then won Wimbledon. What she does one week cannot easily carry into the next major tournament, which is magnified on non-grass surfaces. Kvitova has won Madrid three times and never gone past the fourth round of the French Open weeks later. Currently, Kvitova is on a trajectory akin to Svitolina in 2017: winning multiple non-major tournaments but then failing to maintain that same standard of play once the Grand Slam spotlight intensifies.

The only member of the four Birmingham semifinalists who offers a clear linkage between warm-up performance and Wimbledon performance on grass is Magdalena Rybarikova.

The woman Rybarikova will face on Saturday in the semis, Barbora Strycova, has been a second-round-level player at the majors for most of her career, though she has posted a number of fourth-round results the past two years, including three straight such results at the Australian Open (2016-2018). Strycova is therefore a player who establishes modest results regardless of surface or circumstance. Strycova has made two grass finals in her career. In one instance (2014), she then made her only major quarterfinal at Wimbledon. In the other instance (2016), she lost in the third round. Strycova’s presence in the semifinals is not a blinking red light which somehow proves that an evolution is taking place. It’s a solid achievement on its own terms, but not something which should be linked to her future prospects.

2018 Nature Valley Classic - 22 Jun

Image source – Jimmie 48

Only Rybarikova has shown that a strong grass season might likely lead to a good Wimbledon. She rolled through grass challenger events and then tour events before racing to the Wimbledon semifinals last year. She is once again putting together coherent, effective grass tennis, repeating in Birmingham her 2017 Wimbledon upset of Karolina Pliskova. The steady stream of grass triumphs being orchestrated by Rybarikova suggests the Slovakian speed-changer is ready to throw more grass opponents off balance…

… and yet, if she loses early at Wimbledon this year, it will be harder to say, in 2019 and beyond, that a strong grass season is an indicator of Wimbledon prosperity.

WTA players are arriving at various intersections in these weeks before Wimbledon. What do these intersections indicate?

Not much.

It’s an unsatisfying answer, but sometimes answers have to be.

Images – Jimmie 48
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2019 Evaluation — Wang, Barty and Kontaveit

Matt Zemek

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Geoff Burke -- USA TODAY Sports

Among WTA players who have not yet made an especially large imprint on the tennis world, three took encouraging steps forward in China: Wang Qiang most of all, followed by Ashleigh Barty and Anett Kontaveit. Qiang made two semifinals to substantially boost her world ranking. Barty once again made the Wuhan semifinals after reaching the 2017 final. Kontaveit made her first Premier 5 final in Wuhan.

While it is true that Aryna Sabalenka has — like Wang, Barty and Kontaveit — never gone past the fourth round at a major, the Belarusian professional has played such imposing tennis for much of the past two months that her star is rapidly rising. Moreover, the fact that the player she lost to at the U.S. Open — Naomi Osaka — then won the tournament only magnified Sabalenka. The 20-year-old has created a sensation on tour.

Wang certainly generated excitement, and Barty has made some small steps forward. Kontaveit just produced, in Wuhan, her best tournament to date. Yet, all three deserve to be seen a few notches below Sabalenka across the board — in terms of achievements, potential and consistency. Sabalenka is not well-established in terms of longevity — before August, she was off the radar relative to the top tier of WTA tennis. Yet, what Sabalenka lacks in familiarity has been compensated for with her meteoric nature of her rise.

Sabalenka is not on the same plane as Wang, Barty or Kontaveit. She has exceeded those three by most reasonable measurements. This is not a criticism of the trio, merely a necessary distinction between a player who has dramatically raised expectations for her career and three other players who sit in a more uncertain position.

Let’s spend a little more time to discuss what might be in store for Wang, Barty and Kontaveit in 2019.

The biggest thing Wang has going for her is that at age 26, she is in that sweet spot between wide-eyed unfamiliarity and the pains of advanced age for an athlete. She has been around the block a few times but has lots of miles yet to travel. Notice how many other players in their mid-20s are improving or have improved this year: Simona Halep performed a lot of heavy lifting before turning 27 in September. Kiki Bertens soared at 26 as well. Sloane Stephens won Miami, made the French Open final, and reached the Montreal final at 25. This is the prime period for most athletes. Wang resides there, and this double taste of success in China could give her the confidence and resources to take the next step in 2019.

The main concern for Wang: The disparity between her results in China (and more broadly, Asia) and her results in other parts of the world is so pronounced that she carries a burden of proof into the new season. It is true that being seeded doesn’t mean that much on the WTA Tour these days. There are so many good players and so few who go deep in most of them. Yet, Wang will be seeded at the Australian Open and has certainly given herself a chance to do well. I very much look forward to seeing more of her in 2019, especially since at 26, she owns a task marked by more urgency than the younger players mentioned next.

One of those players is Ashleigh Barty. I noted in the summer that her Montreal semifinal was very important. She needed to show that she could play well in the middle part of the tennis season, not just autumn, when the points and rankings count just as much but the level of relevance can be diminished (see Caroline Garcia last year). Barty’s Montreal and Wuhan semifinals these past two months show that she can fit into the WTA’s larger architecture of players who occasionally make big runs at important tournaments… but now she has to take that identity to the majors in 2019. If Barty can slightly raise her floor at the Premier 5s and Mandatories while reaching at least one major quarterfinal next year, she will probably be able to say that her career is on the right track.

Next is Anett Kontaveit, the Wuhan finalist. Kontaveit beat Sloane Stephens in Wuhan, which is an impressive win but also the kind of win other WTA players have been able to swipe from Sloane in recent years. Stephens just doesn’t handle the Asian swing all that well. Credit Kontaveit for pouncing on a great opportunity — that’s what autumnal tennis is often about for pros in search of points and prize money infusions — but as an indicator for 2019, it might not mean a lot.

The match in Wuhan which might mean more for Kontaveit was her quarterfinal win over an improving Katerina Siniakova. If Naomi Osaka-Aryna Sabalenka is shaping up to be the Next Great Rivalry (capital letters warranted) in women’s tennis, Kontaveit and Siniakova could play in a lot of quarterfinals and R-16s over the next seven years. Kontaveit snatched that match and that points bounce from Siniakova’s grasp, making her Wuhan visit an unquestioned success.

Kontaveit’s biggest regret from 2018 was either her limp 2018 Roland Garros performance against Stephens in the fourth round, on her preferred clay surface, or her almost-but-not-quite loss to Carla Suarez Navarro in the fourth round of the Australian Open. Kontaveit was a set and 4-1 up. She lost the second set but battled back and served for the match late in the third, but got broken and eventually fell 8-6 in the decider. Kontaveit could learn from these setbacks or become weighed down by them. Her 2019 season doesn’t have to reach stratospheric heights; it merely needs to reveal a steadier set of responses to big situations, resulting in consistently improved results.

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Many Songs to Sing in Beijing and the Asian Swing

Matt Zemek

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Geoff Burke -- USA TODAY Sports

What is my biggest takeaway from the China Open in Beijing, the centerpiece of the WTA’s “Asian Swing”?

I have lots of choices, all of them good.

I could focus on the Beijing champion, Caroline Wozniacki… but I chose to do that in this piece on Sunday. 

I could focus on Wang Qiang, who stacked together semifinals in Beijing and Wuhan to rocket into a seeded position for the 2019 Australian Open. Yet, I wrote about her here at Tennis With An Accent.

I could focus on Naomi Osaka and Aryna Sabalenka, two women who did not win the title — or even make the final — but who nevertheless produced solid weeks under the circumstances and kept themselves centrally on the radar screens of tennis fans headed into 2019.

I could focus on Anastasija Sevastova, who made the semifinals at the U.S. Open and, mere weeks later, reached a Premier Mandatory final in Beijing. I made note of how rare that feat was — and is — in this piece at TWAA. 

Yet, while all those stories are good choices as a foremost Beijing headliner, I was struck by a dynamic at this tournament which transcended a single player. It was most profoundly embodied by the two finalists — Wozniacki and Sevastova — but it flowed through the tournament, which once again left very few seeded players entering the latter stages. Only two of the top eight seeds made the quarterfinals: Wozniacki (seeded second) and eighth-seeded Naomi Osaka.

Maybe, you might tell me, the inability of power hitters to more regularly impose their games on counterpunchers or change-up artists is a sign that the WTA’s depth isn’t as special as I think it is.

We could debate that point, but it is a fair one. I can certainly understand why someone would look at Karolina Pliskova or Garbine Muguruza and wonder why those players can’t throw down the “big babe tennis” template and dominate more often. That is a reasonable inclination.

However, I have believed for a long time — having seen so many monochromatic women’s matches (in years before this new ocean of quality depth emerged, I might add) — that women’s tennis was waiting for more players to exhibit more variety in spin, placement, angle, and raw pace. WTA tennis, even in the midst of Serena Williams’ dominance of the tour in 2015, had a place for players who could play in a different way.

The 2018 China Open reaffirmed that.

At the U.S. Open, the hitters ruled. Serena, Osaka, and Madison Keys all made the semifinals, with Sevastova being the one exception. In Wuhan, Sabalenka blitzed the field and won the final against Anett Kontaveit, who also hits the cover off the ball and does not play tennis with a velvet glove.

Beijing changed the equation.

It not only elevated Wozniacki to the title and Sevastova to a Premier Mandatory final; the China Open showed in previous rounds how “less is more” in some instances.

Wang Qiang might have illustrated this principle better than most — not just by reaching the semifinals, but when considering the people she defeated to get there.

Wang handled Jelena Ostapenko, Pliskova, and Sabalenka on her road to the semis. You might say, with legitimate reason, that Sabalenka was a bit drained after winning Wuhan. You would not be wrong. Nevertheless:

  1. Sabalenka led Wang 3-0 in the first set. It took a lot of work for Wang to come back.
  2. Wang wasn’t exactly fresh as a daisy. She made the Wuhan semis and had to retire against Kontaveit.

Wang showed very clearly in Beijing that power and speed — while great qualities to have as a hitter of a tennis ball — don’t represent the first, best or only solutions on court.

Wang did what many WTA players are good at doing these days: She turned an opponent’s power and pace into weaknesses by running down shots and redirecting the ball into open spaces. The hitters hit hard, but that meant Wang’s replies came back at them with interest. Hitting hard wasn’t necessarily an advantage. Wang loved the pace which was thrown at her.

When Wang reached the semifinals against Wozniacki, she went up against a completely different kind of opponent. Had Wang played a different assortment of opponents before the semifinals, she might have been more prepared for the shifting of gears Wozniacki required her to make. She wasn’t. Wozniacki’s spins and an overall reduction in pace threw Wang off balance. A temporary infusion of patience enabled Wang to compete well at the start of the second set, but that 15- to 20-minute pocket of play was the most Wang could offer. She lost eight of the first nine games of the match and each of the last four games of the match in a 6-1, 6-3 loss. Wozniacki didn’t give Wang the pace she wanted. Less was more for the Dane who managed to reign this past week.

Yes, Osaka was not physically healthy by the end of this tournament. Yes, Serena didn’t play. Yes, at the 2019 Australian Open, the hitters might once again rule. However, this Premier Mandatory event was controlled by the change-up artists, after a 2018 Montreal tournament (to cite merely one example out of many) in which counterpunchers claimed the four semifinal spots.

There is a place for many playing styles on the WTA Tour. That is a great and healthy message to take away from this now-concluded tournament.

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Wozniacki Provides the Bookend to a Luminous Chapter

Matt Zemek

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Geoff Burke -- USA TODAY Sports

What do you do after you finally secure the prize you have been chasing your whole career?

What do you do when the cathartic triumph you constantly wondered about — would it ever come? — finally arrives?

For much of 2018, Caroline Wozniacki offered an incomplete answer to this question. In the first half of the season, in the “sunshine swing” of Indian Wells and Miami, she didn’t play close to her best… but who cared, right? She had won the Australian Open in a memorable and well-played final against Simona Halep. She deserved a pass from every commentator. The need to make some sort of statement in the United States this past March was not acutely felt.

Then came clay and grass. Wozniacki’s results were quite respectable — she won Eastbourne on lawns, in fact — but that Eastbourne win the week before the start of Wimbledon did not facilitate supreme preparedness or create maximum freshness for The Championships. She was bounced in week one by Ekaterina Makarova, the noted sniper with a penchant for taking out top-10 players at big tournaments.

Wozniacki didn’t fall off the face of the earth, but she didn’t light it on fire. Again: So what? She had her Australian Open. She had her major. Viewed in context, her year was still an extraordinary, shimmering success… and hardcourts — always her best surface — lay ahead.

That’s when Wozniacki’s body failed to cooperate.

Leg and knee injuries hampered Denmark’s superstar throughout the summer hardcourt season. The calculus was not complicated: Wozniacki depends on movement and the consistency it fosters. If she can’t move supremely well, she can’t play supremely well. Anything she did from Canada through the U.S. Open could not be evaluated on its raw merits. Wozniacki needed time to heal. She needed to be patient in a year when — in January in Melbourne — her patience was profoundly rewarded.

How fitting, then, that after another period of waiting, Wozniacki would finally and firmly answer the question raised at the start of this piece.

What do you do after you finally secure the prize you have been chasing your whole career?

You bookend that early-season achievement in Australia with a late-season Premier Mandatory championship in Beijing, your first Premier Mandatory title in seven years.

Wozniacki did precisely that with her win over Anastasija Sevastova in the China Open final on Sunday.

Yes, the last time Wozniacki won a Mandatory trophy was in 2011 at Indian Wells. The last time Wozniacki won either a Premier Mandatory or Premier 5 event was 2011. She had won Dubai weeks before her Indian Wells conquest.

In those weeks — seven years ago — Wozniacki roared through the deserts of both the Middle East and the inland portion of Southern California, en route to two of the more satisfying championships of a career which now owns three Premier Mandatory trophies (the 2010 China Open being the other). Over the next several years, Wozniacki walked through the deserts of drought, coming close to winning signature titles a number of times but not crossing the threshold.

Recall the 2014 U.S. Open final, when Serena Williams easily brushed her aside. Recall the 2017 Miami final, when Jo Konta — then coached by Wim Fissette — caught fire. Sometimes luckless, sometimes outplayed, sometimes a little bit of both at the same time, Wozniacki kept waiting for the tournament when all the pieces would fall into place for her.

That moment finally arrived in Melbourne.

Then, after a year of fits and starts — and the injuries which held her back — Wozniacki remained patient with her body and her game.

The result: Six match wins in Beijing, 12 sets won, zero sets lost. She never even needed a tiebreaker — she was that much better than the field. She beat four players — Sevastova in the final, but also Wang Qiang, Wuhan finalist Anett Kontaveit, and rising young Czech Katerina Siniakova — who were playing extremely strong tennis when they entered their respective matches with Wozniacki.

Caroline’s brand of tennis sunshine was more luminous than each of theirs.

As a result, a year which began with a first-ever major title has been bookended by a first Premier Mandatory trophy since 2011.

If she wins the WTA Finals in Singapore to collect three hugely prestigious trophies, this year of championships for Caroline Wozniacki will become an even more remarkable journey… but that is an act of looking ahead.

After this title in Beijing, Wozniacki has so much to look back on and admire.

She deserves to enjoy the view.

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