Andrew Burton — Tennis With An Accent
2023 has been a decent year for Grigor Dimitrov. The Bulgarian veteran reached the semi final of the ATP M1000 tournament in Shanghai, losing 6-7 3-6 to Andrey Rublev, then went one better in Paris, coming out on the wrong side of a 4-6, 3-6 final against ATP No. 1 Novak Djokovic. Dimitrov recorded wins over two top-10 players in Paris, Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas. He also defeated Lorenzo Musetti, Alexander Bublik, and Hubert Hurkacz in the last M-1000 tournament of the year. Nott too shabby.
Earlier in the season, Grigor passed a milestone, notching his 400th ATP win at the Chengdu Open in September. Tennis analysts such as Alex Gruskin noticed Dimitrov’s return to form:
“After dealing with countless injuries the last few seasons, think Dimitrov’s played some of his best tennis in 2023
“May not have the signature runs like 2017, but the 32 year-old is absolutely scooting around the court + in complete command of his game.”
400 wins was 400 more wins than I managed on the ATP Tour (full disclosure: I also have zero wins at the Challenger or Futures level). It’s not an inconsiderable effort. I thought I’d take a look and see how Dimitrov’s haul compares with other notable players of the last couple of decades.
I built a database of some 60 players, mostly with the highest peak ATP Ranking Point tally since 2000. Then I looked at wins over time: not just the total wins recorded, but how long it took to get there. Dimitrov’s tally is higher than some notable former players such as Gustavo Kuerten (360 tour level wins) and David Nalbandian (383 wins), but Kuerten compiled 359 of those wins in nine years.
Tomas Berdych (643 wins over 17 years) turned out to be a useful reference point. Would Grigor rise above or fall below the Berdych Standard?
Let’s take a look at Dimitrov, grouped with some of his fellow #GenerationGrigor cohort: ATP players born between 1989 and 1993.
Two players keep pace with Berdych through the first half of their careers – Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic. Like Berdych, both players made one Major final. But you can see that Berdych’s trajectory somewhat accelerates from mid career, while Nishikori’s and Raonic’s tail off. Dimitrov has trailed these two players and Dominic Thiem, to date the only #GenerationGrigor player to win a Grand Slam title.
What of the following cohort – #GenerationNick, born between 1994 and 1998?
Sascha Zverev (384 wins) and Daniil Medvedev (324 wins) both look certain to pass the 400 win milestone, as does Stefanos Tsitsipas (293 wins to date). Zverev would likely have already passed the 400 win point had he not suffered a season ending ankle injury last year at Roland Garros.
Bring us up to date, here are #GenerationFelix (born 1999-2003):
It’s still very early in players’ careers, though Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are both somewhat ahead of Berdych’s pace. Holger Rune actually won 11 tour level matches between 2018 and 2021, accounting for what looks like a slow start. Each of these players will bear watching as they move into their mid 20s and their expected peaks.
I couldn’t present these charts without showing the fabled ATP Big 4 of the last 15+ years:
Federer (1265 wins), Djokovic (1091 wins) and Nadal (1079 wins) each are in quadruple digits: Andy Murray, never the same player after the 2016 season and hip surgery in early 2018, has recorded 741 tour level wins, one more than David Ferrer but behind Andre Agassi (872 career wins) and Pete Sampras (766 wins).
I think I’m the first person to draw up this kind of chart for ATP wins (all statistics sourced from TennisAbstract.com). We didn’t need another confirmation of the remarkable legacy of the Big 3, but adding Murray does (I think) make the case that for a very long time 3 were 4.
And with GenerationGrigor getting longer in the tooth we have more confirmation that they were a cohort who aspired to modesty, but sadly fell short. Nor are GenerationNick “blowing the bloody doors off,” to coin a phrase. 600 wins is achievable for some of the players in contention in Turin this week (Zverev, Medvedev and Tsitsipas), but I’ll be surprised if any of them make the 800 win mark. And we’ll also see how GenerationFelix does in the next few years, as they inherit the earth from the meek (if Novak permits it, of course).
Tennis with an Accent 